I hardly can trade for this week. Honestly I did two trades this week until today (before the New York session start), with very minute profit of just 1 pip, and the other trade on the 16th, I manage to reduce the loss from 30 pips to just 10 pips.
The market just behave differently than I used to be or maybe to some of you may notice this. Due to this, I immediately make a conference call last night to one of my mentor in Europe. He immediately says it's due to stronger than usual market volatility than the last year. Simply just look at the above EURUSD Daily chart. Take a closer look on the ATR indicator.
If you compare the range volatility of last year in the same month, it is far much different than today's volatility. There is just a big gap or leap starting early of this year. The most significant great leap in range volatility happens last month!. Now this sign tells us the range volatility have change dramatically which prompt us to change our trading tactics. If last year a 30 pips stop loss may be reasonable, now with the current volatility range that stop loss tactics may or may not work anymore. We all have to revise the way we approach and enter the market.
Within this week or so, we all saw that the market moves differently when certain economics numbers being released. That also posed us some curiosity on what & why the market does not move as it used to be. Further study on this matter, as what my mentors told me, is when George Soros the currency speculators and hedge fund manager said the supply of USD is tightening and thus create the awkward market movements.
I am waiting for the next market move after the New York session kick start. I am still using the fibo technique, but I love to use trendlines during this time to determine trade entry, stop and target. My target rules still stays, i.e. twice the risk.
Until then...happy trading guys ;)